Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, printed at 2.6% annually versus the 2.7% consensus. The softer-than-expected readings sent a clear signal through risk markets.

Why Today’s CPI Print Matters More Than the Number

March marked the first inflation report to fully capture the oil price shock tied to the Iran conflict. Crude briefly topped $115 per barrel in early March, pushing U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022.

Wall Street banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo, had projected headline CPI of 0.87% to 0.99% month over month. The median forecast from Nick Timiraos’ survey sat at 0.90% monthly and 3.3% annually.

However, core inflation told a different story. At 0.26% month-over-month, it printed below most bank estimates, suggesting that the energy shock has not yet bled into broader consumer prices.

Core CPI prints came in cooler than expected despite what has been the biggest jump in energy prices since 2005.

BTC jumped from roughly $71,900 to $72,320 following the data release, with softer core reading reopening speculation that the Federal Reserve may have room to cut rates later in 2026.

However, investors must remain wary of chasing this jump, as the “sell-the-news effect” could see them fall amid exit liquidity driven by expected profit-taking.

Rate-Cut Narrative Shifts

Still, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% probability the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its April 29 meeting. Only 1.6% of traders expect a hike.

However, traders have added to bets on one Fed interest-rate cut in 2026.

The Fed raised its own 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% at the March meeting. Seven of 19 policymakers now see zero rate cuts this year.

That hawkish tilt makes today’s cool core reading significant, as it challenges the re-acceleration narrative.

The real question from this print is not whether inflation hit 3.3% or 3.4%. It is whether price pressures are broadening beyond energy or settling into a temporary spike driven by oil.

If core continues to hold below 2.7%, it strengthens the case that the Iran-driven energy shock remains isolated. That distinction will likely determine whether BTC retests $75,000 or fades back toward $67,000 support in the coming weeks.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:f45119335094b:0-bitcoin-surges-past-72-000-as-u-s-inflation-misses-wall-street-forecasts/